MLB Generation Next (Part 1)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Club: Toronto Blue Jays

Position: First Base

Age: 22

Verdict: Sell

Guerrero is one of the most compelling players in the game today.  At only 22, he is among the American League leaders in wins above replacement, home runs, runs batted in and batting average.  As a result, it may come as a surprise that Guerrero is a sell for me.  In fact, I owned two copies of Guerrero’s 2016 Bowman Chrome, and I sold both before the start of the 2021 season.  While I may have been slightly early on this decision, I do not regret it at all.  

For all his appeal, there are several drawbacks to holding Guerrero’s cards.  First, he plays in Canada.  Fair or not, until he plays for a team in the United States (ideally a large market), Guerrero’s marketability and collecting appeal will be limited.  Baring a trade, Guerrero will not be able to leave Toronto until 2026, which is the first year he will be eligible for free agency.  Second, Guerrero is a defensive liability and will likely be limited to a designated hitter role for a large portion of his career.  Historically, collectors have been hesitant to spend big dollars for designated hitters.  Third, and most important, I have concerns about Guerrero’s ability to stay healthy.  He reportedly lost a bunch of weight this past offseason, but he is still listed at 6’2” and 250 lbs.  That is a lot of weight to be carrying around a baseball field for six months at a time.  Get ready for a slew of Guerrero injuries.